FORECASTING METHODS AND APPLICATIONS MAKRIDAKIS S. Księgarnia

Forecasting Methods and Applications

The field of organizational forecasting, born in the 1950s, is reaching maturity. Significant theoretical developments in estimation and prediction, powerful and inexpensive computers coupled with appropriate software, several large scale empirical studies investigating the accuracy of the major forecasting methods, and, most importantly, the considerable experience gained through the actual application of such methods (in business and non-profit organizations) have contributed toward achieving this maturity. Today, the field of (organizational) forecasting rests on solid theoretical foundations while also having a realistic, practical base that increases its relevance and usefulness to practicing managers.

The preparation of this third edition, like the previous two, is based on the authors' view that the book should: (1) cover the full range of major forecasting methods, (2) provide a complete description of their essential characteristics, (3) present the steps needed for their practical application, (4) avoid getting bogged down in the theoretical details that are not essential to understanding how the various methods work, (5) provide systematic comparison of the advantages and drawbacks of various methods so that the most appropriate method can be selected for each forecasting situation, and (6) cover a comprehensive set of forecasting horizons (from the immediate to the long-term) and approaches (time series, explanatory, mixed) to forecasting.

New in this edition

While meeting the above criteria, this third edition includes major revisions of all the chapters and the addition of several completely new chapters. Our purpose has not been to merely revise the second edition, but rewrite it to include the contributions of the latest theoretical developments, and practical concerns, while presenting the most recent empirical findings and thinking. We have tried to make this edition both complete and fully updated, as well as theoretically correct and relevant, for those who want to apply forecasting in practice.

Some of the new material covered includes

• the X-12-ARIMA and the STL methods of time series decomposition

• local regression smoothing, best subsets regression and regression with time series errors.

• the use of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) for model selection

• neural networks and non-linear forecasting

• state space modeling and vector autoregression

• a modern approach to forecasting the long-term based on mega trends, analogies and scenarios

• new ideas for combining statistical and judgmental forecasts.

• experience gained from forecasting competitions including the latest M3-IJF Competition.

• recent research on forecast accuracy.

• the features of the major forecasting packages

• forecasting resources on the internet.

Unique features

This book is distinctive for its attention to practical forecasting issues, its comprehensive coverage of both statistical models and how to implement them in practice within a modern business environment, and the inclusion of many recent developments in forecasting research. In particular:

There are dozens of real data examples and a number of examples from the authors' consulting experience. All data sets in the book are available on the internet (see below).

We emphasise graphical methods and using graphs to help understand the analyses.

Our perspective is that forecasting is much more than fitting models to historical data. While explaining the past is important, it is not adequate for accurately predicting the future.

Much of the modern research on forecasting accuracy, based on surveys of forecast users, is summarized.

Many recent developments in forecasting methodology and implementation are included.

640 pages

Po otrzymaniu zamówienia poinformujemy,
czy wybrany tytuł polskojęzyczny lub anglojęzyczny jest aktualnie na półce księgarni.