NATURAL GAS AND GEOPOLITICS FROM 1970 TO 2040 VICTOR D., JAFFE A., HEYES M. Księgarnia

By most estimates, global consumption of natural gas - a cleaner-burning alternative to coal and oil - will double by 2030. However, in North America, Europe, China, and South and East Asia, which are the areas of highest-expected demand, the projected consumption of gas is expected to far outstrip indigenous supplies. Delivering gas from the world's major reserves to the future demand centres will require a major expansion of inter-regional, cross-border gas transport infrastructures. This book investigates the implications of this shift, utilizing historical case studies as well as advanced economic modeling to examine the interplay between economic and political factors in the development of natural gas resources. The contributors aim to shed light on the political challenges which may accompany a shift to a gas-fed world.

• A timely exploration of how gas may become our most important energy source
• Contains historical case studies of seven centres of gas production: North Africa, Indonesia, South America's Southern Cone, Central Asia, Qatar and Trinidad
• Multi-dimensional analysis of gas trade's implications for economic and security policy

Reviews

'Energy is on the front burner and will stay there, so this book has special value. Read it and learn about the topic of today and tomorrow and tomorrow.' George P. Shultz, United States Secretary of State, 1982-1989

Security of supply and security of demand are two sides of the same coin. In the absence of the fungibility and liquidity which characterise the world oil market, providing the bridge between supplier and marketplace, the gas business as it grows and globalises must create the mutual confidence between supply side and demand side in a different way. This timely and authoritative study draws on the lessons of industry history to underscore this fundamental message, and to highlight the responsibilities that all industry stakeholders share in meeting this precondition for fulfilling the promise of gas.' Frank Chapman,CEO, BG Group plc

This is a very valuable addition to the global literature on energy issues and energy policy … Natural Gas and Geopolitics goes deep into the global gas policy issues that affect critical US energy policy, not only looking backward but helping understand what may happen as the global natural gas market develops.' Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico, United States Secretary of Energy, 1998-2001

Contents

Figures; Tables; Appendices; Acronyms; Preface; List of contributors; Acknowledgements;

Part I. Introduction and Context:

1. Introduction to the study Joe Barnes, Mark H. Hayes, Amy M. Jaffe, and David G. Victor;

Part II. Historical Case Studies:

2. Introduction to the historical case studies: research questions, methods and case selection Mark H. Hayes and David G. Victor;

3. The Transmed and Maghreb projects: gas to Europe from North Africa Mark H. Hayes;

4. Liquefied natural gas from Indonesia: the Arun project Fred von der Mehden and Steven W. Lewis;

5. Bypassing Ukraine: exporting Russian gas to Poland and Germany David G. Victor and Nadejda M. Victor;

6. Natural gas pipelines in the Southern Cone David R. Mares;

7. International gas trade in Central Asia: Turkmenistan, Iran, Russia and Afghanistan Martha Brill Olcott;

8. Liquefied natural gas from Qatar: the Qatargas project Jareer Elass, Kohei Hashimoto, Stacy L. Eller;

9. Liquefied natural gas from Trinidad: the Atlantic LNG project Rob Shepherd and James Ball;

10. Politics, markets and the shift to gas: insights from the seven historical case studies Mark H. Hayes and David G. Victor;

Part III. International Gas Trade Economics:

11. The Baker Institute world gas trade model Peter Hartley and Kenneth B. Medlock III;

12. Political and economic influences on the future world market for natural gas Peter Hartley and Kenneth B. Medlock III;

13. Market structure in the new gas economy: is cartelization possible? Amy M. Jaffe and Ronald Soligo; Part IV. Implications:

14. Conclusions Amy M. Jaffe, Mark H. Hayes and David G. Victor; Appendix A. Technical notes Nadejda M. Victor.

534 pages, Hardcover

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